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Stubbornly high inflation could push the Federal Reserve into a more cautious stance this year regarding interest rate cuts, the central bank's former vice chair said Friday. "If the Fed were targeting CPI right now, we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts," Clarida said. A Chicago Fed measure of financial conditions is at its loosest since January 2022. "What I think is going on here is a delicate balance that [Powell is] trying to navigate," Clarida said. "Financial conditions will very naturally start to ease when they get the sense the Fed is done and [will start] cutting.
Persons: Richard Clarida, Jerome Powell, Clarida, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Commerce Locations: Atlanta
Some side hustles come with a significant time investment and unpredictable pay. Related storiesNot all side hustles come with the time investment that ride-hailing does. But everyone with a side gig is faced with the same question: Are the extra working hours worth the financial reward? Only eight months after he started, he resigned from his two extra roles and decided to stop job-juggling for the time being. But all prospective job-switchers are faced with the same question: Are the uncertainties that come with a new job worth the financial reward?
Persons: , switchers, Lyft, There's, overemployment Organizations: Service, Business, Harris Poll, Uber, Twin Cities, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Harris, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta, Minnesota, Texas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is more focused on inflation than the labor market, says Dennis LockhartDennis Lockhart, Former Atlanta Fed President, discusses his expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
Persons: Dennis Lockhart Dennis Lockhart Organizations: Former Atlanta Fed, Reserve
Stubbornly high inflation and a wobbly jobs market are combining to pose an ominous threat to the U.S. economy, Bank of America chief market strategist Michael Hartnett warned. The result is a narrative of "macro shifting from Q4/Q1 'Goldilocks' to Q1/Q2 'Stagflation,'" Hartnett said in his weekly "Flow Show" note to clients dated Thursday. As Hartnett indicated, the U.S. closed 2023 with the labor market looking strong and GDP posting a solid 3.2% gain. On the jobs market, while nonfarm payrolls have risen strongly , household employment actually is down by about 900,000 since November and full-time jobs have declined by nearly 1.8 million. The Fed is "implicitly ... tolerating higher inflation" as way to inflate the debt away, a condition that means "weaker policy credibility = weaker currency … why crypto & gold [are] at all-time highs."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Stagflation, nonfarm, specter, That's Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, U.S ., Atlanta Fed, Nasdaq Locations: U.S
Here's a question on the minds of investors amid recent hotter-than-anticipated inflation readings and this powerful rally: Are we due for a stock market scare? However, as of late, there have been some early warning signs that the declines in inflation may be slowing. Other areas have also sent up some flags that could adversely affect stocks and bonds in the short run. However, it is unwise to ignore what market signals are suggesting, at least in the short run. But in the short run, we should remain on heightened alert for changes in this year's outlook.
Persons: It's, I'm, John Maynard Keynes, Ron Insana Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Federal Reserve, West Texas, Atlanta Federal, CNBC, Financial Partners Locations: York
If the forecast is close to accurate, it would mark a considerable downshift from January's explosive growth of 353,000, but still representative of a fairly vibrant labor market. "This is kind of a cautious labor market. ZipRecruiter's quarterly job-seeker survey showed expectations for the medium-term outlook hitting a series high, while applicants also indicated stronger levels of confidence in their financial wellbeing and current state of the labor market. A jobs market that remains red-hot could deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this year as expected. In its most recent survey of economic conditions, the Fed found that the ultra-tight labor market has loosened somewhat, but there are still active pockets.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Julia Pollak, they're, Pollak, Raphael Bostic, they've, Tom Gimbel, Jerome Powell, Gimbel Organizations: Chelsea Market, Getty, Labor Department, Dow Jones, Employers, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Challenger, Labor, Survey, LaSalle Network, Big Tech Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S, Covid
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s written testimony submitted to congressional lawmakers, released Wednesday. Recent economic data showed that price pressures persisted in January, leading investors to recalibrate their expectations for rate cuts this year. Still, the timing and pace of rate cuts remains up in the air. Too soon to cut rates? In a recent interview with CNBC, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said “we’ll see” if the Fed cuts rates in 2024.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, Powell’s, inflation’s, , José Torres, “ Young, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, , “ I’m, Austan Goolsbee, we’re, Adriana Kugler Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Financial, , Interactive Brokers, CNN, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Richmond Fed, Congress, Chicago Fed, , Stanford University Locations: Washington
The dollar was steady on Friday after data showed U.S. inflation remained sticky but easing gradually, keeping alive the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June, while the yen slid back to the key 150 per dollar level. The data showed U.S. prices picked up in January in line with expectations, while annual inflation slipped to the lowest in three years. Takata's comments stoked expectations that the central bank could end negative rates in March rather than the widely held view of a move in April. The contrasting comments are likely to keep investors guessing about the next move from the central bank. The Australian dollar rose 0.08% to $0.65025, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.6088.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Hajime Takata, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Traders, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of Japan, New Zealand Locations: United States, U.S, Atlanta
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok laid out 10 reasons the Fed won't cut rates in 2024. AdvertisementAdd Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok to the growing chorus of people skeptical the US will see a rate cut this year. "As a result, the Fed will not cut rates this year, and rates are going to stay higher for longer." Underlying inflation trends are moving higher, not coolingBLS, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist3. RB of Atlanta, NFIB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist.
Persons: Torsten Slok, Slok, , Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Apollo, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, BEA, Haver, RB Locations: Atlanta, NFIB
Homeowners who recently purchased properties with interest rates as high as 8% face much higher monthly mortgage payments than those seen a few years ago. Of course, interest rates will not return to 3% anytime soon, but homeowners don't need rates to drop much to see a big difference in their bank accounts. Homeowners with high-interest mortgage loans are expected to quickly refinance when rates drop. While mortgage interest rates started to fall in late 2023, they were above 7% for much of the year, peaking near 8% in October, and recently climbed back above 7%. Win McNamee/Getty ImagesWhenever cuts happen, a drop in rates would save existing and new homeowners money each month.
Persons: , Michele Raneri, Raneri, Eric Audras, Raphael Bostic, Jerome Powell, Win McNamee Organizations: Service, Business, TransUnion, Atlanta Fed, CNN, . Federal Reserve Locations: TransUnion
This confidence is echoed by other recent metrics, including a survey by Morgan Stanley showing that consumer sentiment hit a five-month high in January. Economists who spoke to CNBC Make It say it's likely the cumulative effect of wage growth, low unemployment and slowing inflation. "But with slowing inflation and strong wage growth, adjusted-for-inflation incomes are increasing, giving consumers more buying power," he says. Wages increased 5% in January 2024, a three-month moving average of nominal wage growth for individuals, as measured by the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. Wage growth, slowing inflation and low unemployment are the main factors for improved optimism among Americans, Ernest says.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, what's, Robert Johnson, Here's, Gus Faucher, Johnson, Jonathan Ernest, Ernest Organizations: of Michigan, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, CNBC, Creighton University's Heider College of Business, PNC Financial Services Group, U.S . Department of, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Stock, Case Western Reserve University Locations: New, Atlanta
Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: Still more work to do to lower inflation pressuresAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic joins 'Money Movers' to discuss what the latest CPI and PPI reports suggest about the economy, whether consumers are feeling good about the economy, and more.
Persons: Raphael Bostic Organizations: Atlanta, Atlanta Fed, CPI, PPI
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher, says Jefferies’ David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Money Makers' to discuss his thoughts on Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's comments on rate cuts, his expectations from the Fed following the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI numbers, and more.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos, Raphael Bostic's Organizations: Jefferies, Atlanta Fed, PPI
The Fed can still break markets. Here’s how
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Those gains came even as Federal Reserve officials attempted to reduce investors’ lofty expectations for a plethora of interest rate cuts this year. It is now signaling that interest rates could come this year but not until spring or summer. That means they think the Fed is keeping interest rates too high and could potentially slow down economic growth too much and risk a recession. That makes the NFL and the Super Bowl all the more valuable to advertisers trying to reach a mass market. Li-Lac Chocolates, which calls itself the oldest chocolate shop in Manhattan, told CNN that their raw chocolate prices are up 13% this February compared to a year ago.
Persons: Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Olivier Darcy, Sunday’s, CNN’s John Towfighi, , Michele Buck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Investors, Nasdaq, Federal, Apollo Global Management, National Association for Business, Atlanta Fed, CNN, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, CBS, Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL, Allegiant, NFC, Fox, AFC, Super Bowl, Companies, Hershey Co Locations: New York, There’s, Las Vegas, West Africa, North America, Manhattan
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNN he expects the first interest rate cuts in the summer. He said he expects the US inflation rate to fall to "the lower twos" only by end-2024. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . On Monday, Raphael Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed, told CNN he's expecting the US inflation rate to fall to "the lower twos" by the end of this year — down from 3.4% in December.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, , CNN he's Organizations: Atlanta Fed, CNN, Service, Business
Dow tumbles more than 400 points on hot inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —Stocks tumbled on Tuesday after fresh data revealed that inflation eased somewhat but stayed stubborn in January. That comes after the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday notched a record high close, while the S&P 500 retreated from its record high. The Dow slid 490 points, or 1.3%, Tuesday morning after falling more than 500 points at its session lows. The Consumer Price Index revealed that prices rose by 3.1% for the 12 months ended in January, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNN in an exclusive interview published Monday that he doesn’t see the Fed cutting rates until the summer.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, , Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, Chris Zaccarelli, Raphael Bostic, Carl Icahn Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Traders, Federal Reserve, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Fed, Independent, Alliance, Atlanta Fed, CNN, JetBlue, Hasbro Locations: New York
Looking past a March cutSince the Fed’s first policy meeting this year, officials have worked together to temper market expectations on the timing of interest rate cuts. Bostic’s views on when it makes sense to start cutting rates are further out than the mid-year expectations most Fed officials have expressed, which is in line with current market expectations. In total, Fed officials anticipate three rate cuts this year, according to their latest Summary of Economic Projections, published at the end of last year. Economists expect the annual overall inflation rate measured by the Consumer Price Index to fall to 2.9% from December’s headline reading, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Fed officials like himself, he said, “live the economy too.”“I have to go to the grocery store like everybody else.
Persons: Don’t, Raphael Bostic, , Bostic, he’s, they’ve “, Jerome Powell, “ It’s, ” Bostic, “ I’ve, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Federal, CNN, CBS, Consumer Locations: New York, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana , Mississippi, Tennessee
Macquarie economist Danny Doyle said he now expects just two interest rate cuts this year and no recession in 2024 or 2025. Doyle had previously expected as many as nine interest rate cuts just two months ago. One such economist is Danny Doyle, Macquarie's head of economics, who pulled a U-turn on Thursday when he slashed his 2024 interest rate forecast to just two rate cuts of 25 basis points a piece. That's fewer than the Federal Reserve's own forecast of three interest rate cuts this year. Doyle expects the Fed's first interest rate cut to happen at the July FOMC meeting, while the market expects the first interest rate cut to happen in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Danny Doyle, Doyle, Macquarie's Organizations: Macquarie, Federal, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's
In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA
The economy is in good shape and earnings are expanding, which spells good news for stocks, according to Stephanie Link. "We're in the sweet spot of this economy, in terms of growth," which is great news for corporate profits and points to wider stock market rally involving more stocks, Link said. "We're running at 4.2% from the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker, you've got PMIs [purchasing manager indexes] that are bottoming, new orders that are inflecting [higher]," Link said. "It means better earnings. A strong economy means better earnings, and that is what is happening.
Persons: Stephanie Link, Link, Hightower, you've, We've Organizations: Hightower Associates, Atlanta Fed
Wall Street continues to climb a wall of worry even as investors deliberate how much longer equities can maintain their record run. But questions remain for investors after some major disappointments in an intense week suggested more challenges ahead. Apple dropped 3% this week after reporting lackluster earnings, weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Elsewhere in corporate earnings, regional banks as represented by the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF slid 7% after poor results from New York Community Bank spurred investor fears of a wider contagion. Signs of market weakness For investors, there may be more issues in the market going forward in 2024.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Apple, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Rubner, Russell, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, CNBC's, Sonders, Lehman, Raymond James, Josh Beck, James McCann, Abrdn, McCann, Rhys WIlliams, Williams, it's, Art Hogan, They're, Hogan, Estee, Eli Lilly, Ralph Lauren, Rowe Price, Philip Morris Organizations: Meta, Dow Jones, Regional Banking, New York Community Bank, Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Markets, Wayve Capital Management, Riley, Atlanta, PMI, Simon Property, Companies, Tyson Foods, Semiconductor, Caterpillar, Prudential Financial, Ford Motor, Enphase Energy, GE Healthcare Technologies, Consumer, Walt Disney Co, Wynn Resorts, PayPal, Brands, CVS Health, Hilton Worldwide, Uber Technologies, Costco Wholesale, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, Rowe Price Group, ConocoPhillips, The Hershey Co, Philip Morris International, PepsiCo Locations: China
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. The report also indicated that December's job gains were much better than originally reported. The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Gross, Atlanta, Fed Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed trying to calm down expectations for March rate cut, says Dennis LockhartDennis Lockhart, Former Atlanta Fed President, joins 'Power Lunch' to give his reaction to the Fed decision to leave rates unchanged.
Persons: Dennis Lockhart Dennis Lockhart Organizations: Former Atlanta Fed
The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.
Persons: Claudia Sahm, , Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed
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